Viewpoint - Bill Piecuch

Making sense of our rapidly changing business world

wmpqbw.jpg (51685 bytes)Recently I participated in a business seminar when the leader said something that seemed profound, yet troubling. He said that managers today must live with the new rules of business, namely "doing more, faster, better and with less." Two days after digesting the seminar "wisdom" remark, the stock market lurched past 9700 into record setting territory.

What do the two events share in common? Plenty. I must admit the "go faster" remark didn't sit well. Most managers I've worked with in training sessions have expressed frustration regarding ratcheting their efforts to squeeze more productivity. Besides, I thought; hasn't all this change created a numbing effect on all of us?

In trying to make sense of all the changes we're experiencing in business, I examined two thoughts that give insight of why rapid transformation could be regarded as a blessing and even a measure of hope. Charles Handy in his book entitled The Age of Paradox discusses an intriguing proposition. It is called "the sigmoid curve" (named "sigmoid" because it resembles a curving part of our kidney) and it implies why management, seemingly confused and lost at times, might actually be doing exactly the right thing at exactly the right time in fueling today's explosive economy.

The sigmoid curve is the S-shaped curve that is analogous with the story of life itself namely that cycles swing up then down like a roller coaster throughout our lives. Hardy says the secret to constant growth is to begin vigorous new efforts - a new sigmoid curve - before the first one peters out. The right time to start a new curve is not on the downswing, but to the contrary, on the upswing. Not when business slows but when things are going well - the upswing.

Imagine you are observing a business cycle and the curve (or cycle) is going up. Near the top of that curve, mark a point. Let's call it point A. At that point all the information indicates that the company or business is doing fine and that it would be foolish to change. Most of us linear thinkers would reserve our energies for point B, which is when the cycle begins its predictable downswing.

Not so says Hardy the crucial point is to begin an entirely new curve at point A (the upswing). What is interesting is the shaded area. This must be a time of great confusion because new people, new ideas, new strategies and new products collide with the older ideas.

The people connected with the new curve are also are different because those leading the second curve are seldom the people who led the first curve. As a matter of fact, those responsible for the first curve will find it difficult to abandon the first curve while it is going so well. For a time, new ideas and new people must co-exist with the old until the second curve is established and the first begins to wane (point B). Could it be that a number of our business organizations are really in tune with this theory and a great deal of the tension and confusion of change is explainable, even justifiable?

Here's my second observation on why business change might not only be right, but desirable. Dr. William C. Frederick of the University of Pittsburgh has an unusual academic background that includes anthropology and economics. In 1995 he published a landmark study. His study points out that we must accomplish more with less because life itself has a built-in desire to economize.

This, he says, protect us against loss of energy and form, something called "entropy." In his study summary, Dr. Frederick states that, "Overall, life on earth has been a roaring economizing success story." Translation: Lower costs mean higher profits which attract more capital, which, in turn, increases prosperity.

While this information might not simplify our lives, we can take some solace by being aware of the issues and invisible forces shaping and guiding market forces. Adam Smith said something like that. That's what makes these one of most exciting times in history to be alive.